easy   Probability

Multiballs I

A release-checked easy problem for training Bayes' Theorem, Conditional Probability.

Question

You have two urns in front of you, say $1$ and $2$. Urn $1$ has $m$ red and $n$ blue marbles inside, while urn $2$ has $n$ red and $m$ blue marbles inside. Assume that $m,n \geq 1$. You select one urn uniformly at random and select $2$ marbles uniformly at random without replacement. In your selection, you observe $1$ red and $1$ blue marble. Find the probability that you drew from urn $1$ when $m = 7$ and $n = 4$.

Practice focus

This Probability problem is tagged Bayes' Theorem, Conditional Probability. State the random variables and conditioning information explicitly, then check the result against boundary cases before opening hints or a solution.

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