medium   Games

Multiplicatively Decreasing I

A release-checked medium problem for training Conditional Expectation, Uniform, Recurrence Relations.

Question

You play the following game starting on turn $i = 1$: Initialize turn to $i = 1$. Generate $X_i \sim \unif{0}{\alpha^{i-1}}$, where $0 < \alpha < 1$, independently of other random variables. You can choose to either receive a payout of $X_i$ (the game ends), or you can choose to reject $X_i$. If you reject $X_i$, $i$ gets incremented to $i+1$, and the process goes back up to the second step. Assuming you play optimally, what is your expected payout from this game? Report the answer when $\alpha = 1/2$ to the nearest thousandth.

Practice focus

This Games problem is tagged Conditional Expectation, Uniform, Recurrence Relations. State the random variables and conditioning information explicitly, then check the result against boundary cases before opening hints or a solution.

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