easy   Probability

Runny Runs I

A release-checked easy problem for training Conditional Expectation, Coins, Geometric/Negative Binomial, Markov Chains.

Question

A coin with probability $0 < p < 1$ of heads per flip is repeatedly flipped. A run is defined as a maximal sub-sequence of the same outcome. For example, the sequence $HHHTHTTTT$ has $4$ runs: $HHH, T, H,$ and $TTTT$. Find the expected length of the first run when $p = 1/3$.

Practice focus

This Probability problem is tagged Conditional Expectation, Coins, Geometric/Negative Binomial, Markov Chains. State the random variables and conditioning information explicitly, then check the result against boundary cases before opening hints or a solution.

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